Can Hungary be kicked out of the European Union?

The streets of Budapest are full of people. Not only young people from the queer community were there, but also pensioners and families, reported Ármin (27): “It was surprisingly full, peaceful and with few police.” On June 28, more people came to the CSD [Christopher Street Day - known as Pride Parades] in Budapest than ever before. Organisers estimated up to 200.000 people took part in the Pride March. Ármin was one of them.

He travelled all the way from Cologne to show his support to the local LGBTQ+ community and to fight for fundamental rights. When the Hungarian police officially banned the Pride March, he was shocked:“Democracy is being dismantled here. It is absolutely unacceptable that the freedom of assembly is being undermined.” Born in Hungary, he spent his early childhood there before moving to Germany at the age of 11. “CSD’s in Germany are always a party, we celebrate the rights we have as queer people,” he explained and added, “here in Hungary, the people are being intimidated, but we refuse to accept it, and we will attend the Pride March anyway.”

Budapest’s mayor Gergely Karácsony publicly supports the Pride and is in favor for the march to take place. The government had threatened fines and facial recognition during the Pride March. It should deter people from coming. In 2021, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also enacted a law for restricting the rights of the country’s sexual and gender minorities in the name of “child protection”. “Right now, Hungary’s government is openly homophobic, transphobic and anti-queer—this is clearly part of Orbán’s agenda,” said Michael Hunklinger, political scientist for Queer Politics.

Core values of the EU are ignored

Discrimination against people because of their sexual orientation is contrary to the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union. Respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, and equality are also values on which the EU is founded. “I am quite certain that Hungary would no longer fulfill the Copenhagen criteria for EU accession and would therefore not become a member of the European Union at this stage,” said Nicolai von Ondarza, Head of Research Division for EU and European topics at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

In short, Hungary is an EU member state that disregards core values of the EU to such a high level that it could not enter the EU as of today. A thought that pops up: Can Hungary be kicked out of the EU? – No, according to von Ondarza. He explained that “membership is always the sovereign decision of the state in question, and there can be no exclusion against the will of the individual state.” On the contrary, he warned against the desire to kick Hungary out of the EU. Ármin can relate to the question of excluding Hungary from the EU, however as a Hungarian, he does not wish the population to go that far. Instead of asking how to expel Hungary, it should be asked: how can the EU exert pressure to force change?

Ármin at the pride parade in Budapest. Credits: Ármin Ludl

Political pressure

EU countries can suspend the membership rights of another member, including voting rights in the Council. It can be seen as a last resort to safeguard the EU’s founding values. Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union – the EU regulations – states, “if a country seriously and persistently breaches the principles on which the EU is founded as defined in Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union”. That means, for example, equality, the rule of law, and respect for fundamental rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities.

How does Article 7 work?

The first part of Article 7 is about preventive measures. The goal is to identify a clear risk of a serious breach of EU values and to start a dialogue. For that one-third of EU member states, the European Parliament or the European Commission makes a proposal primarily. After that, a two-thirds majority is needed in the parliament, and then four-fifths of the Council’s members have to vote in favor.

The second part of Article 7 allows stronger action, including sanctions. To suspend a member state’s voting rights in the Council, all members of the European Council have to vote unanimously, with the exception of the country in question.

The Hungarian situation is stuck between the two phases

A vote in accordance with the second part of Article 7 has not yet been formally put to the vote. According to the assessment of von Ondarza, the Commission doesn’t want the vote to be held – out of fear that unanimity is not reached. “ Hungary would say, in quotation marks, we have been acquitted, we can continue our practice, and then perhaps again with a stricter form,” explained von Ondarza. He is certain that countries like Slovakia - known to be allies - support Hungary and would not vote against the country.

Is the EU powerless against human rights violations in Hungary without this vote?

In that specific case—yes. “Precisely because there was always the fear that the veto of another member state would ultimately lead to failure,” said von Ondarza. For him, a reform of Article 7 is necessary, because “this gradual, creeping process —such as the one we’re seeing in Hungary—is very, very difficult to address via Article 7.” As a solution he proposes to move away from unanimity of all other member states (except for the country in question) and to approve the vote with a two-thirds or four-fifths majority. That would be lowering hurdles. But, to modify this article, absolute unanimity is needed. So, Hungary must vote for the modifications of the law. However it would later be used against Hungary and disempower the country itself.

Cancellation of funds as a weapon

Von Ondarza thinks, to generate pressure on Hungary differently, the EU should focus on strengthening the rule of law conditionality in the budget. Since 2021, the EU budget has a new rule called the „conditionality regulation.“ This rule adds extra protection to the budget whenever there are breaches of the rule of law principles that could harm EU financial interests. The next multiannual financial framework will start in 2028 and cover at least five years. Currently, the Commission prepares and discusses the next budget and will present it mid-July. It can be seen as a chance to put Hungary under pressure by reducing the country’s funds. Especially because the country is a big net recipient and received in 2023 the fourth-highest amount of budget balances, according to the Commission.

However, the problem in that case is that absolute unanimity is needed for the resolution on the next budget. Hard discussions between all member states, and especially with Hungary, can be expanded during the next few years. Von Ondarza said that, “the other Member States must stand firm and make it absolutely clear to Hungary that there will be no new multiannual financial framework without rule of law conditionality. Hungary stands to lose more if the financial framework does not materialize.”

Powerlessness of the EU

All the discussed measures are complicated to realize, linked to hurdles, and cannot be implemented promptly. Von Ondarza explained further, that the EU as an institution “largely respects the sovereignty of its member states and intervenes in internal affairs only to a very limited extent,” explained von Ondarza.

Up to 200.000 people took part in the Pride March on June 28. Credits: Ármin Ludl

Why should Hungary still be part of the EU?

Losing a member state would set back the process of European integration. Moreover, a kick out would have a negative impact on the EU’s citizens. “Exclusion would not only affect the Hungarian state but also all of Hungary’s citizens —including those who did not vote in favor of Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party,” clarified von Ondarza. The expert sees a political change triggered by the election as the best means to reestablish rule of law and democracy in Hungary. Even though Ármin no longer lives in Hungary, he is still connected to people. He reported that when he talks to people in Hungary, more and more are open to give the opposition a chance, as they suffer under the current government. At the same time, he believes it will be difficult for the opposition to win the election because of the media’s alignment with the ruling party.

Pressure from the judiciary

A month ago, Tamara Ćapeta, advocate general of the Court of Justice of the European Union, said, Hungary’s LGBTQ+ law breaches EU regulations. The opinion of the advocate general is legally non-binding but can be used as an orientation by the judges who will pronounce a judgment in autumn. “I wish that this will help, because it is political and social pressure for Hungary if the court clearly states that what Hungary is doing is unlawful and contradicts European fundamental rights,” said Michael Hunklinger, political scientist for Queer Politics, and added , “but I fear that this will not be the case, but I would like it to be”. However, he underlined that “on a symbolic level, it is incredibly important that this judgment or this expert opinion has come about.”

Pressure from the public

Up to 200.000 people walked down the streets of Budapest last weekend to fight for fundamental rights. People of the LGBTQ+ community in Hungary, but also people around other European countries like Ármin, came along. Around 70 MEPs [Member of the European Parliament] also attended the event. “You could see that it wasn’t just a queer demonstration, but that many people saw the opportunity to stand up against the government and for democracy,” reported Ármin. “I think it is very important to show visibility even if it is dangerous,” said Hunklinger. In these times, standing up for minorities is even more important, he explained: “Minorities are not the problem; it’s a democracy problem, and that concerns us all!”