How did we get here?
In November 2023, the Netherlands held a general election in which, for the first time in decades, a right-wing party claimed victory. The Party for Freedom (PVV), led by anti-Islam eurosceptic Geert Wilders, received 23.6% of the vote, nearly 8% more than the next closest party. The PVV more than doubled its vote share from 2021, rising from 10.8%. This marked the Dutch government as one of the first EU nations to swing further politically to the right.
Issues such as the increased cost of living, a housing crisis, and concerns over immigration led to the collapse of the previous Dutch government run by previous Prime Minister Mark Rutte, paving the way for the success of parties and politicians like the PVV and Geert Wilders. While unable to secure the Prime Ministership— which went to independent Dick Schoof—Wilders has formed a coalition government comprised of center-right and far-right parties. If the new proposals are passed, this would represent a significant political victory for Wilders and the PVV.
Fortress Europe?
Wilders’ plan follows a week of EU discussions aimed at tackling immigration issues within the bloc. Close Dutch partners, Germany and France, have begun implementing immigration measures, with Germany already establishing border checks along its Polish border. Dutch Asylum Minister Marjolein Faber, a member of the PVV, proclaimed, “We want to make the Netherlands as unattractive as possible.” Wilders victoriously asserts that the proposal represents the most aggressive asylum policy in Dutch history. Critics of the proposal, such as the Dutch Council for Refugees, argue that the new policy will only exacerbate issues for both parties. The legality of the measure has also been questioned by lawmakers and coalition partner New Social Contract (NSC). Prime Minister Schoof has aligned with Wilders’ coalition demands, asserting that the new measures seek to reduce inflow and increase outflow.
Wilders’ Concession
The Dutch government has faced significant contention over how to address immigration issues. Wilders’ initial demands for immigration policy threatened to collapse the already fragile government; however, he was persuaded to adopt the aforementioned measures by his center-right coalition partner, the New Social Contract. The PVV’s initial plans included the possibility of declaring a migration crisis, a decree that would allow for the subversion of parliamentary consent when enacting migration policy. Dutch cabinet members feared the internal upheaval that could follow such an action, as well as the potential breach of EU law. Additionally, Wilders has proposed rerouting failed asylum seekers to Uganda, following a visit by Dutch Trade Minister Reinette Klaver.
Opposition and Critics
Many within the Dutch government who do not align with the Wilders-led coalition have staunchly opposed his tactics, policies, and persona. Jesse Klaver, a member of the Greens, labeled the government’s actions as “shameful” and views Schoof and the center-right parties as enabling a further shift of Dutch policy to the far-right. Coalition party members have stated that their decision to work with the PVV was not one made by them, but rather by the voters who granted them the most seats. Rob Jetten, leader of the liberal party D66, remarked that the only victory achieved by the new coalition is mass budget cuts in crucial sectors, with billions of euros in funding for health, education, and research being cut from government spending.
EU and Public Support
NSC member Dirk Gotink presents Wilders’ position as one of moderation and necessity. The PVV was voted in by the public, winning by large margins to address the perceived failures of the previous Rutte administration and the People’s Freedom Party for Democracy (PVV), with immigration identified as the leading issue. Gotink notes that Dutch society and holding centers are overwhelmed by increasing irregular immigration and mass deficit spending. According to the NL Times, a majority of Dutch constituents are pleased with the proposed asylum plans, with 57% of voters responding positively. Over three-quarters of voters from the coalition parties express satisfaction with the plans; however, less than half believe implementation is likely. Gijs Rademaker, a journalist and RTL researcher, finds broad support for many of the government’s new propositions, yet this support lacks confidence in tangible action. PVV voters have also shown some trepidation towards Wilders, with his approval rating among them falling from 95% to 90%. Voters from the VVD, NSC, and BBB acknowledge the significant influence the PVV has had on current Dutch affairs, while PVV voters primarily see the NSC as the leading influencer. This revelation comes after a survey conducted by Hart van Nederland, which indicated that large swaths of coalition voters now regret their choice of party.
Now What?
There is general skepticism about whether Wilders’ plans will come to fruition, both from legal and logistical perspectives. However, if implemented, will Wilders’ push lead to further anti-immigrant policies? If so, what might Wilders address next?
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