Latvian politics is often considered relatively stable and well-organised compared to other countries, but recent developments suggest rising tensions. The Prime Minister, Evika Siliņa, represents the largest faction in the Saeima: New Unity. A pro-European party and a member of the centre-right European People’s Party, they govern alongside the centrist Union of Greens and Farmers and the centre-left Progressives, covering a wide range of the political spectrum.
However, democracy has not always been Latvia’s political system - the first Saeima was elected in 1922 and existed until 1934, when Kārlis Ulmanis carried out a coup d’état. From then until the Soviet occupation in 1940, Latvia was governed under an authoritarian regime. Ulmanis effectively ruled as a dictator under the slogan “Leadership, Unity, Nationalism” and in this period elections and referendums ceased to exist. Nonetheless, some still praise him as a leader who avoided violence and focussed on building Latvian identity.
Latvia was incorporated into the Soviet Union following occupation, meaning that free and fair elections were not held for a further fifty years. Latvia’s democracy has been in a process of rebuilding and strengthening for three and a half decades and it joined the EU alongside the other Baltic states in 2004. But there is a growing sentiment in the opposition that European integration has not benefitted ordinary Latvians and that Russia under Vladimir Putin may be a more natural friend of the country - despite the recent history of occupation and control.
To be (European) or not to be?
The next elections are due to take place later this year and campaigning has already started earlier than expected. Tensions began rising significantly with debates in recent months over the possible withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention, which Latvia ratified in 2023 after years of campaigning from women’s rights groups. Supporters viewed ratification as a long-awaited step toward stronger protection for victims of domestic violence; critics raised concerns about its interpretation and potential impact on sovereignty.
The issue has once again drawn international attention to Latvia, largely in a negative context. Human rights organisations have warned that withdrawing from the Convention could weaken protections for vulnerable groups and damage Latvia’s reputation as a country committed to democratic values. Public reaction has been strong and in the capital, Riga, around 10,000 people participated in two major protests, with additional demonstrations taking place in other cities and among Latvian diaspora communities abroad
These debates have exposed the deep divisions that exist within Latvian society and politics. Some argue that national laws are sufficient to address domestic violence without reliance on international agreements, while others emphasise that the Convention provides essential standards, accountability, and international cooperation. Further controversies have intensified the political climate to an even greater extent. In January, significant public attention was drawn to reports that the Speaker, Daiga Mieriņa, had signed a letter supporting Donald Trump’s nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize without consulting other officials.
A progressive spring or a false dawn?
The scandal raised concerns about transparency and consistency in Latvia’s foreign policy decision-making and was met with public criticism. But public opinion remains split on most of the major issues and, while many citizens continue to support established political parties, there is also a growing trend of youth political engagement through NGOs and activist groups. A lot of young adults are seen to be very supportive of the Progressives, but it is unknown if this will result in a significant increase in seats.
Another key question remains: will young people actually vote and take part in the public debate, or will they ignore it outside of Instagram stories and friendship circles? Often, whether it is on the left or the right, the biggest critics of the political system refuse to actively take part in it. This is not helped by the fact that Latvian politics is seen as confusing and too difficult to research by many. Only 47.09% of eligible voters participated in the 2025 municipal elections and just 33.82% participated in the 2024 European Parliament elections.
Although detailed data on youth participation in parliamentary elections is limited, available research indicates that turnout among young voters is significantly lower than the overall average. Studies tend to point to two main issues: gaps in civic education and the inability of political parties to effectively engage younger audiences. Long-term trends suggest persistent challenges in youth engagement. In a country where voting on those who govern has not historically been the norm, this is deeply concerning to any democracy supporter.
Latvian democracy is endangered but not extinct
So, is Latvian democracy under threat? That much appears clear by the shift away from support for Europe and the lack of engagement from young people, often the most supportive of a pro-European stance. But the situation is far from irreversible - it just requires greater attention and to be taken more seriously. Democracy cannot function without active participation. Citizens must engage, express their views, and vote and they must be genuinely engaged in the process rather than reluctantly pushed into it.
Democracy is more valuable in a country like Latvia than most, but it is something that must be continuously worked on and not taken for granted. The trends in Latvia’s politics demonstrate that democracy can die not through a concerted campaign but the inaction of those who benefit from it. Latvia’s future will be determined solely by its citizens and not the political class. The question is no longer whether the system functions, but whether people choose to come together and make it function. It is only by exercising the right to vote that Latvia can be saved from the false promises and illusions of the opposition.
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