Moldova 2024 Elections

A Surprise Referendum

Moldova’s electoral calendar indicates the next presidential election is to be held in 2024, four years following the election of the current president, Maia Sandu. In contrast, the referendum was not planned. On 20 October, as well as voting for their future president, the Moldovan people will be posed the following question:

“Do you support the modification of the Constitution regarding the Republic of Moldova’s accession to the European Union?”

This came as an unexpected move by President Sandu in December of last year, shaking up the Moldovan political sphere and many outside observers. Moldova has made great progress towards EU integration in recent years by obtaining candidate status in 2022 and opening negotiations last June. However, nothing at this stage in the accession process requires the candidate country to hold a referendum. This referendum procedure is customarily used at the end of the accession process to confirm a country’s decision to join the EU. Many countries that joined the EU in 2004 did so, as did Croatia in 2013. Therefore, Maia Sandu’s gamble seems unpredictable. A ‘NO’ in the referendum would put a definitive end to the legitimacy of any pro-EU policy or government for many years to come. So why is the president taking such a risk at this moment?

Seizing “Pro-European” Momentum

The fact that the referendum is being held at the same time as the presidential election is the main criticism voiced by the opposition, both pro-EU and pro-Russian, who see it as a political stunt by the ruling party. This may well be the key to understanding the Moldovan president’s gambit. Maia Sandu enjoys a very positive image among the population, both as a “clean” politician (far detached from the corruption that has plagued Moldovan politics in previous decades) and as the champion of the European cause in the country. The incumbent president therefore seems keen on making the most out of this popularity — which is still high despite four years in power — with the hope that the voters who support her re-election, will also choose her to lead Moldova’s European integration through the referendum.

If this gamble proves successful and the ‘YES’ vote wins the referendum, Maia Sandu would offer the pro-EU bloc a fast track towards EU integration in the coming decade. Indeed, all future reforms along this line will benefit from a boost in credibility due to the popular endorsement she would receive in the referendum. A ‘YES’ would also deal a major blow to the pro-Russian opposition, much of whose rationale will have been rejected by the popular verdict. Finally, a victory would also ensure a strong political foundation for the president’s party (PAS) and the other pro-EU parties during Moldova’s 2025 parliamentary election. This foundation would enable them to ride the pro-EU popular tide in the country. The gambit is a risky one but with potentially worthwhile results.

The Situation Less than a Month Before the Election

While we are waiting for the outcome of the referendum, Maia Sandu’s bet already seems to have succeeded from a political viewpoint, with the opposition running disunited towards the presidential election. Part of the “left-wing” opposition (largely sympathetic to Moscow’s cause) had for a time hinted that it might unite behind a single candidate. Ultimately, out of the six parties present at the negotiation table, four will go into the election with their own candidate. Meanwhile, “Victorie-Pobeda” the new political apparatus of the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor is still struggling to register with the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) due to irregularities with their documents. Finally, the pro-EU opposition, which had formed a bloc (Blocul “Impreuna”) last April, also split over the nomination of a common candidate, with CUB running alone in the election. Against an opposition divided into twelve candidates, the incumbent president Maia Sandu is the logical favorite.

The polls confirm this trend, with Maia Sandu leading in the first round (34% according to the IRI, 35% according to WatchDog.md), well ahead of the second-placed Socialist Party candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo (9.9% according to WatchDog.md). This lead shows Maia Sandu has a high chance of winning the second round. As for the referendum, the latest estimates put the ‘YES’ vote at 52%, while ‘NO’ sits at 29.6% (WatchDog.md).

The trends are therefore relatively positive but remain fragile; a fragility that will certainly be exploited by the pro-Russian forces in the final stretch of this electoral sprint, through the dissemination of fake news, vote-buying, and other illegal methods to which they are accustomed. In response to this risk, the pro-EU civil movement is mobilising itself, and numerous civic and political initiatives have been launched in recent months, including “Moldova Decide,” “Pentru.md,” and “Cetăţeni Pentru Europa.” These initiatives are aimed at convincing undecided citizens to rally behind Moldova’s European integration in the ballot box on 20 October.

This is a crucial moment for the pro-EU movement in Moldova, which has no room for error. A ‘NO’ vote in the referendum would quite simply mean the end of the European dream for an entire generation of Moldovans.