In North America, particularly in Canada, public figures often present European liberal democracy and unity as an example to the masses. However, recent transnational decisions and policy signals from within the European Union complicate this image. In February last year, during the Munich Security Conference, a senior US envoy bluntly announced the launch of peace negotiations on Ukraine without Europe at the table. This was not merely surprising; it amounted to a direct challenge to the Union’s declared role in shaping Kyiv’s future.
For years, the EU has highlighted its overwhelming solidarity with Ukraine. Yet, suddenly, its status as a key stakeholder was openly questioned. This moment raised a stark issue: with internal differences and diverging public opinions, who truly speaks for Europe regarding Ukraine? And, what democratic legitimacy does that voice carry?
The fraying Franco-German core
When discussing Europe, it is natural to begin with the German-French tandem. Both countries have long claimed to steer EU policy, although this central role has increasingly frayed. As an analyst at Deutsche Welle Akademie noted in an informal discussion, “the once-dominant Franco-German powerhouse no longer exclusively speaks for Europe, as the war in Ukraine has proved beyond doubt”.
Today’s EU functions less as a cohesive bloc and more as a coalition of shifting alignments. Against this backdrop, the words on unity of Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, take on particular importance. This was evident in her response to Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, whose unilateral visit to Moscow under the banner of a “peace mission” drew sharp criticism. Von der Leyen warned that only EU cohesion could deliver a “just and lasting peace” and that “appeasement will not stop Putin”.
The episode unsettled Brussels. France and other member states rushed into emergency meetings to avoid being sidelined diplomatically and to coordinate a common response, revealing how fragile Europe’s collective posture can be under pressure.
The Eastern flank’s existential view
The dynamic shifts markedly on the EU’s eastern flank. Governments there regard Ukraine’s defence as an existential pillar of their foreign policy. Estonia’s Prime Minister was among the first to denounce Orbán’s initiative, warning that it risked sowing confusion. Lithuania responded even more bluntly, arguing that genuine peace efforts cannot involve engagement with an aggressor regime.
Poland’s pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk adopted a more pragmatic tone, linking any peace process closely to the United States. In late 2025, he suggested that peace could be achieved within weeks through U.S. security guarantees, while acknowledging that success was far from certain. Across the region, however, there is broad agreement that European unity is essential and that hesitation could embolden Moscow.
Public opinion and democratic constraints
Decision-making ultimately depends not only on governments, but also on public opinion, a cornerstone of EU norms. Recent Eurofound polling shows that most Europeans continue to support aid to Ukraine and assistance to refugees. However, support has declined since 2022, particularly in Eastern host countries managing sustained refugee inflows.
In Poland, which once accepted millions of Ukrainians, support for expanded refugee assistance has fallen, with around 60 per cent now saying their country should do more. At the same time, optimism persists. Polls indicate strong backing in the Baltics and Poland for Ukraine’s eventual EU membership. Across Europe, all countries except Hungary express majority support for accession, though intensity varies significantly.
Support exceeds 80 per cent in Nordic states but falls to roughly one-third in Hungary, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic. Germany presents a particularly revealing case, with public opinion evenly split at 47–47 per cent. These figures highlight divisions even within the EU’s traditional engine and reinforce Eastern European fears that public fatigue could weaken Europe’s resolve.
Western Europe’s growing fatigue
Western European governments continue to shoulder much of the financial and diplomatic burden of supporting Ukraine. Yet, their publics are increasingly strained. A December 2024 YouGov poll across seven Western countries recorded a sharp decline in support for aiding Ukraine “until it wins.” Majorities now favour negotiated settlements, even if this entails territorial concessions This shift is driven by broader pressures: economic stagnation, migration challenges, and political polarisation. These conditions have strengthened far-right movements and reinforced narratives portraying the war as distant from Europe’s core interests.
Such trends complicate Europe’s strategic posture, particularly as Washington increasingly urges Europeans to assume primary responsibility for regional security. EU Commission documents from late 2025 estimate total European support to Ukraine at €130 billion, yet disparities in strategic outlook remain evident.
Representation without a single voice
At the heart of these tensions lies a question of democratic representation. EU foreign policy operates through intergovernmental consensus, granting each member state a formal voice. This inclusivity is a strength, but it also exposes limitations. Smaller and Eastern states often fear their influence is diluted in practice.
Polish President Andrzej Duda has invoked Churchill’s principle that “small nations will count as much as large ones” in Europe. In reality, political weight still tilts toward Western capitals. Countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and the Baltic states tend to exert disproportionate influence only on specific issues, including enlargement and regional sanctions.
Despite differences, it would be inaccurate to suggest Western Europe has been passive. Berlin, Paris, and Madrid have backed sweeping sanctions and arms deliveries, even as some quietly advocate caution in any future negotiations with Russia.
Unity under strain
The war in Ukraine has galvanised European action across sanctions, military assistance, and diplomacy, significantly isolating Russia on the global stage. Even traditionally neutral states such as Sweden and Finland have joined NATO, recognising that their security is tied to the broader European order.
Yet, unity remains fragile. Hungary’s continued engagement with Moscow represents a built-in fault line, temporarily muted by the urgency of the conflict. If the war drags on for years, these internal tensions may intensify.
In between the lines, Europe’s challenge is clear: sustaining unity while managing diversity. Whether the European Union can continue to act collectively without a single, authoritative voice on Ukraine may ultimately shape both the outcome of the war and the future of European integration.
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